If you are interested in my theory, outlined in the MANIFESTO OF THE NEW ECONOMIC THEORY then I can write a book or an article for your order to be published in your journal.
Andrey Shvets
Andrey Shvets
MANIFESTO OF THE NEW ECONOMIC THEORY
Introduction
Authority of
the well-known economists, professors and thick textbooks suppress a feeling in us that we are missing something
important when studying modern economic theory. But an unbiased person always has the feeling
that the proposed explanations are very superficial and do not affect the
essence of things.
So if the
working mechanism casts a shadow on the wall, you can not understand the
principle of operation of this machine, if you look only at the wall. The true
reasons of the changes will not get In our field of vision. We will build our
theories about how the shadow of one movement leads to another movement, but
the mechanism operates in cycles, all repeats, and we can easily interchange
shadows, causes and consequences of the shadows.
Have not you
noticed how hard it is to understand what is primary and what is secondary for
modern economic theory? And that the same cause may produce the opposite
effect? Economic science tries to study the shadows on the wall.
To
understand the operation of the economics it is necessary to determine the
basic goal of any development, including economic. On the basis of
understanding the purpose of creating a theory of value, and armed with it to study the cause and effect
relationships in the economy.
In this
paper, I have formulated a new theory of value. And on the basis of it. I have proposed new economic theory
postulates that contradict many of the usual convictions. I hope that the declared
approach in the "manifesto" to the study of economic
phenomena, will give a new impetus to the development of economic science.
Chapter1.Theory of Value
The cause of
the current economic crisis is that no one understands the essence of money. The
general feeling is that money is the equivalent of something important, but no
one knows what. These pieces of paper symbolize something. But what? Influence, power, possibilities, warranty,
fun ... what exactly? No one really knows.
Money - only
a shadow cast by a substance that controls life of people. But without knowing
what kind of substance it is, people worship its shadow. Economists and
politicians narrow this shadow, then expand it, then shift to the left, then to
the right. But these actions are meaningless and ineffective, because they distract
from the main thing, which is the true value of everything.
Economists trying to influence real value by paper
symbols of real cost are like a dog chasing its own tail. Ignoring the
establishment of a logical theory of value, has led to the fact that all the
problems in the economy one tries to solve with the help of monetary means. But
to influence the real economy and the real value trying to manipulate with
money is the same as to affect the cause by consequence. Short-term
improvements for this may be due to unsound hopes, but these hopes will soon to
be destroyed.
Of course,
the earlier attempts were made to create a theory of value, but not very
successful. For example, the theory of marginal utility indicates a change of
value, not its content. A labor theory does not correlate with the observations
of the elementary fact that the value of the product does not always correspond
to the effort.
The main
substance governing people is freedom. But freedom not only in the political
sense. The more a person has opportunities, the more he is free. And the
greater the possibility that he will use these opportunities, the more he is
free. For example, if a person begins to experience hunger then the possibility
that he will read, play music, or play sports decreases .The more a person is
hungry, the less free he is. Therefore, the cost of food is gradually
increasing for him.
The food
restores his freedom, and the more he was hungry, the more freedom is with
food. Thus, the value of the product is measured by the freedom that it gives
or returns.
Any strong
desire reduces the freedom of a man, and the more freedom he returns to himself
having obtained the desired product, the higher the value of the product is. Even
if this product - the usual glass beads.
But the
product may increase a person's freedom objectively, allowing him to travel, to
receive information, to practice arts or sports. In any case, the value of
goods - freedom, obtained by a person together with goods.
If one
person is thirsty and has thus left the food and the other person has left the
water, but he is hungry, then exchanging water and food, they both increase
their freedom. This is the essence of exchange. All participants increase their
freedom.
If people's
actions are controlled by the desire to obtain greater freedom, it is logical
to assume that freedom - the purpose of long-term development and the main
criterion of progress. It may be argued that a savage had more freedom than a modern
man who has lots of restrictions .But, in fact, we giving away part of our freedom in the form of
numerous constraints obtain the freedom
much greater.We may be interested in the sciences, travel, work in various
fields, get involved in arts, etc. At the same time, a savage could only spend all
the time in the struggle for survival.
Now we are
close to understanding of what the equivalent of money is, but we will study
two more properties of freedom, each of which has an impact on the patterns of
economic development.
The first
property. If you desire to increase
freedom - the law of development, then freedom can only grow in cycles. So if a
thirsty person sees a well, then he will definitely go to it. He is not free in
his choice. The paradox is that man is not free when he is driven by the desire
for freedom, so temporarily the level of his freedom reduces, but only to
increase afterwards. This is similar to an investment: before you get the money
you need to lose it, i.e. you have to invest.
The second
property. The greater freedom, the more possibilities. And more opportunities
to further increase freedom. People comment this as "money makes
money."And, therefore, freedom increases exponentially, which explains the
rapid acceleration of the development of civilization, which we are now
witnessing.
From the
above, it is clear that money is the equivalent of freedom .But only the
equivalent, not the freedom itself , the fact very often overlooked by economists, and politicians .But this is still not the definition of money.
Freedom - a
very subjective concept. The greater it is, the greater the opportunities are,
and the more these possibilities are equally possible. But in fact it is the
definition of information entropy.
Now there is
a confusion of the concept of entropy, which is considered to be a measure of chaos because of the misconduct
of parallels with the thermodynamic entropy. Although this kind of entropy is a
measure of the freedom of the individual atoms. More information about this can
be found in the Appendix. Now we just accept as a fact that the entropy is a
measure of freedom, and money is the equivalent of entropy.
Chapter 2.
Return and the increase of entropy
As it has
already been mentioned, the goods in the exchange process can bring or return entropy. Let us consider the first
case.
As soon as a
person increases the desire to get hold of a particular commodity, his entropy
decreases. And, if we speak about some physiological needs, then it decreases exponentially. First, slow pace,
and then faster and faster .When satisfied, the person regains his previous
level of entropy.
It would
seem that there is no progress in this process. But this is not the case. Due
to the fact that entropy decreases and a human desire increases, a man is ready
to exchange this desired item to his job. Suppose that due to the promotion all
the inhabitants of the state began to crave for colorful glass beads. Their entropy
decreased, they only think about how to get beads. At the same time they
appreciate their work much less. Now, palaces, pyramids can be erected, canals
can be built for those multi-colored glass and so on.
Now imagine
that all the people of the state are provided with everything , nothing is in
shortage, they do not experience hunger or a strong desire to get something. Because
they do not need anything , residents of this blessed state will assess their
work greater than any of the proposed benefits, and they
will do nothing. The state and the economic system will fall apart. And very
soon they will be captured by more hungry neighbors.
For
successful economic development, the residents of the state should want something,
there should always be the deficit of something . For a long time, the driving
force of economic progress was the desire of people to satisfy their hunger. But
now, in many developed countries the situation has changed. In order not to
lose the economic competition between countries with cheap labor, these states
should cultivate new desires in its citizens. It is necessary to create new
"glass beads", having made the pursuit for new opportunities not less
strong need than physiological needs.
Now consider
the process of entropy increment. In this case, people are driven to increase
their freedom, their entropy. And for this, you must first invest entropy,
reducing its level, in order to get it back together with dividends. That is, people
first set a specific task before themselves,
and then begin to solve it reducing their freedom temporarily.
Please note
that in the return, and in the increment of entropy, the most important phase
of the process is the decline phase of entropy .In one case, when there are
desires and aspirations, in the second - to take steps to increase the entropy.
In fact, it is a temporary decrease in the level of comfort. This is very
important because the dominant ideology of a consumer is that he considers the
ideal situation with constant increase of comfort and satisfaction of all
desires .But if this is achieved - the development will stop. Much more
important is to be able to stop consumption, only then you can manage this
consumption.
And it
should be noted that the return and the increment of entropy may be mixed in one process.
Chapter
3.Entropy, GDP, money supply
Thus,
entropy is a measure of freedom, and a measure of entropy in the modern economy
is money. However, it is not the money spent but the money that can be spent. Freedom grows only in
the case when there is money that we can spend at our disposal and if there is
some uncertainty. Squirrel running in
the wheel is not free, despite the constant movement. And the cash flow is not
a measure of freedom and opportunities.
We can say
that money is the "canned" entropy. Thanks to the money exchange
process is stretched over time .Giving your product, a member of the customary
exchange gets another one and thereby increases his entropy. But with the money
he can get money for his goods, the money that he will spend on any goods at
any time afterwards. Moreover, his entropy increases at the moment when he
receives the money, and remains so when he buys a product for money. A product just modifies, turning money into a
product.
Entropy
level of society corresponds to the value of the money supply. But it is
adequate. Money itself is not the entropy. Therefore, if the same level of
entropy doubles the money supply, the value of money is reduced by half. Turnover
of money does not affect its purchasing power. We can mentally stop all
payments and mentally ask all citizens to give all their money (and, of course,
securities) for the purchase of something very important. All the collected
amount will be equal to the total entropy of the state, and this will be
assessed as the degree of economic development.
Contrary to
popular belief among economists, accelerating the turnover of funds has no
effect on their value directly. Imagine that the rate of turnover of money is doubled, and the money supply drop by half.
According to the ideas of classical economic theory, the purchasing power of
the monetary unit must remain the same and the exchange rate also should not
change. For the most part nothing has to change. But if you need again to
combine all funds to purchase something extremely urgent, the collected amount
will be two times less than the same. The country is impoverished by half, by
half its capabilities, its freedom and its entropy. But scientists and
economists did not notice this.
As well as
at the same turnover, the company can be profitable and unprofitable, and GDP
may rise or fall, but it is not directly due to the economic growth Therefore, economic
incentives, the only criterion of which
is the growth of GDP are so ineffective.
To orient in the economy according to changes of the GDP - is like going blind.
GDP is not a
measure of entropy, freedom, and therefore, is not a measure of economic
development and not an indicator, which should be equal in every way. This
measure is cash, which subjects have the right to dispose of at their
discretion. Economic growth requires investments. And then the investments are
spent on the purchase of materials, payments, etc .that leads to increased
growth of GDP but this increase - only the consequence . They sometimes say
that then the stocks may not be
invested, then they will simply be taken
out of the economy .This is true . Stocks themselves express the uncertainty,
because it is unknown how and when they will be spent, which is why they are
the equivalent of freedom, without which there is no development . And in order
to influence the economic growth we need to stop measuring the economic
processes only by cash checks.
As noted in
Chapter 1., if freedom and entropy- a measure of development, and all under the
sun tend to increase them, then they can only grow in cycles. That is in the
way of moving the system to a state of greater freedom, the level of freedom is
reduced. Once again, this process is comparable to the investment. We must
first give out some freedom, so that to get it at a higher level.
GDP and
entropy are interrelated, and trying to straighten the line GDP we align entropy too. But the decrease in the amplitude of
oscillations of entropy means a decrease in investment, in comparison with possible.
Hence the growth rate is slowing.
Entropy is
more closely related not to the GDP, but
to the value of the money supply .This relationship can be expressed by the
relation:
ΔE = M2-M1 * Ir
Where ΔE - entropy change for the period;
M1 - Money
supply at the beginning of the period;
M2 - the
money supply at the end of the period;
Ir-real
inflation for the period.
And it should be noted that entropy has the role of the "conductor"
in this equation. It is its change that results in a change in the money supply
and inflation, but not vice versa
Chapter 4. Error
of Keynes
The great
mistake of modern economic theory is that consequence is taken for cause .This
misconception is based on the theory of Keynes, and therefore leads to absurd
conclusions.
Usually when
they want to describe the principle underlying the Keynesian theory they describe
a society in which all citizens produce quality and goods on demand, but
everybody is in trouble, because due to the lack of money no one can buy this
product .Now, if we give one of them $ 100 and he will buy boots for it, then the GDP will increase by $
100.Then a shoemaker will buy a tool from a blacksmith for the same money, and
GDP will increase by$ 200 now. A blacksmith will buy grain, etc..Thus, the $ 100 will not only bring happiness to all, but will
also lead to an infinite growth of GDP .Absurd.
Of course,
there is a confusion here .Actually a purely operational problem is described here where you can not exchange the goods,
otherwise than through cash, but nobody has the banknotes. However, this
situation is a very theoretical one. If there is a highly demanded product,
people will find a way to exchange it, especially in the current conditions of
diversity of the payments and settlements.
To somehow
mitigate the absurdity of the above situation, when $ 100 leads to an infinite
increase in GDP, the followers of Keynes, suggest that this case – the ultimate
case. And that in fact the GDP will not grow indefinitely because (and only
because) a shoemaker and a blacksmith will not buy anything for all the money, and some of that money will be obligatory
deposited. For these followers, "not-eating" all resources is a
negative phenomenon. It is hard to imagine a more devastating statement for the
economy. So it is no surprising that the
world brought up on Keynesian theory is vulnerable to economic crises.
"Eating
away" money being poured into the economy leads to a temporary increase in
GDP, but the entropy itself is not growing, but it is only redistributed. And so when the
economy makes sure that it is "empty" money, everything will return to
even worse state, because the crisis did not stop. To prevent it, it is
necessary to increase the entropy, and for this one needs money, which society can invest, the money
that the shoemaker and the blacksmith deposited . It is this money that will bring freedom of choice and
opportunity. Hence such an accumulation of funds is a positive factor . But a modern
economic theory, which absorbed incorrect postulates of Keynes, continues to lead the national economy
to the wrong direction, focusing on GDP as the main criterion and flooding the
economy with "empty" money.
Economic
growth is accompanied by an increase in GDP, but the cause is the change in
entropy, change in GDP - a consequence. An attempt to replace cause and consequence
leads to a primitive fetishism. As a savage imitates thunder to cause rain, and
the government stimulates the demand, hoping to trigger economic growth.
I think it
would be more useful to repeat the words of Keynes's notion that in a crisis a
state should behave as "the last big spender." Not the investor, not the creator, not an
entrepreneur - a spender. Maybe this phrase very clearly expressing the
Keynesian approach would worry politicians and society, and would give rise to
doubts about the strength of this theory.
Chapter 5. Inflation
At the inertia
of value of money supply, a key indicator of entropy change is inflation, for
which you can write the following expression:
Ir = (M2-ΔE) / M1
At constant
money supply, reducing the real entropy leads to an increase in inflation and
the increase of entropy – to a decrease.
In the
formula real inflation is used, but in practice, economists measure the nominal
inflation. If there were an ideal mechanism resulting in the accordance of
money supply with the entropy of the society, the measured (nominal), inflation
would always be equal to the real one. So an increase in the money supply in
half would lead to inflation of 100%.But this mechanism is not available . The
purchasing power of money is being brought into line with the available entropy
in transactions .Such a mechanism "sees" only the amount of money in
circulation. This volume is less than the total money supply, so the measured
(nominal) inflation is different from the real one. For example, to change the
entire money twice, may not affect the nominal inflation if only stocks increase,
and the amount of money in circulation will not change. However, this
distinction between real and nominal entropies is very dangerous. At any time,
the reserves can be set in motion, the nominal inflation will start to rise . With
the increasing nominal inflation people will want to convert their cash
reserves into commodities and real estate. The amount of money in circulation
will grow like an avalanche, and inflation starts to rise, during which stocks
can depreciate .People and companies will find themselves in the position of
the entropy trap which is difficult to get out from.
Such a
situation has led to the Great Depression, when huge reserves of impaired
assets in the form of securities depreciated . And now the U.S. government is
making enormous efforts to huge external "reserves" in the form of
dollar supply in circulation abroad, so that these reserves were not involved
in the internal circulation and would not have caused the depreciation of the
dollar and the reserves.
We write the
formula for the hidden inflation:
Ih = Ir - In
Where Ih -
hidden inflation;
In - rated inflation;
Ir - real inflation.
Government
must constantly control the value of the hidden inflation, which is a
"time bomb", avoiding excessive deviations.
And again,
back to the misconception about the level of inflation depending on the
rate of turnover of assets. The logic of the reasoning is the following . Suppose
that all the money in the community is in motion. Now, all payments will be
done by two times smaller sums, but twice as often .To maintain the same
turnover, half as large sum of money will be necessary. There will be
"extra" money, which will lead to inflation. But this reasoning is
wrong.
Even if all
the money is in motion, each person at a time has a certain sum, which is a
measure of his possibilities. Though this sum consists of "variable"
money that constantly comes and goes. If the turnover rate increases,
"variable" money needed to maintain the previous trade, will be
smaller, but people will have "permanent" money at their disposal. However,
the sum which, on average, each person has at any moment of time, will remain
the same .Only in the first case, this amount consisted entirely of
"variable" money, and the second – of "variable" and
"permanent". Therefore, there will not be an inflation caused only by
an increase of cash flow.
In this
example, we are again faced with a situation where reason and consequence are
confused. Rising inflation may be the cause of the growth rate of circulation
of money, but not vice versa.
Chapter 6. Market
equilibrium
Let us use
the standard schedule of supply and demand for market analysis .The lines of
supply and demand intersect at the point of equilibrium of the market.
Let us assume
that the market is at point A. Point A is located to the left of the equilibrium
point, and is below the demand and is above the supply curve .The lower is the
point of the market below the demand curve, the more satisfied the customers are . The higher is the point above the market demand, the more
satisfied are producers. Thus, the distance A1-A2 is proportional to the
satisfaction which is received by the buyer and the manufacturer from the sale
of one product or service, and is proportional to the volume of entropy received
by a customer and a manufacturer. A product of the distance A1-A2 and output is proportional to the entropy volume, which the
whole society receives.
In a
competitive situation the market will move to a point of equilibrium, until it
stops. But the point of equilibrium - the worst point of the market, because
buyers and producers receive a minimum satisfaction in it. A slightly increased
price - and buyers will refuse to
purchase. A slightly reduced price - and manufacturers will refuse to manufacture the goods . At this
point the market produces the minimum
volume of entropy.
The market
produces the maximum volume of entropy when it moves to the point of equilibrium.
Therefore, the more new markets are, the greater the entropy is produced. But if to assume that due to
improved competition a new market is instantaneously in the equilibrium
position, it means that it produces a minimum volume of entropy.
On the one
hand, the slower the market is moving to the point of equilibrium, the greater
the entropy is produced per item. The more manufacturers are, the more products
are sold and the greater entropy is, but the market comes into equilibrium
faster. It is necessary to achieve the optimal balance between the speed of
movement of the market to equilibrium and the volume of production.
However, all
kinds of artificial restraint in output and appearance of new producers have their
disadvantages. It is more reasonable to create a developed system of
information about profitableness changes
of different markets. Then the market, quickly moving to the point of
equilibrium, whose profitableness decreases
rapidly, will be unattractive to business entities. The processes of growing
competition and increased output will stop. One can say that the market will be
less perfect, but more "wise”. And this is good, because perfect markets produce the minimum amount of entropy.
Chapter 7. The
concentration of entropy
Entropy is
not only a universal measure of development, but also a measure of the
competitiveness and survival. If there are some structures or communities struggling
for the same resource, the winner is the one who is more powerful, has more
entropy. Greater entropy can withstand more powerful enemies and natural
elements. Therefore, people throughout history have learned to create different
structures and the communities, because it is a way to concentrate and unite
entropy.
Since we are
more interested in economic processes, we shall consider the production company
.From the standpoint of personnel working in it, the principle of investment
takes place here too. Employees give away their freedom to get a lot of freedom
in the form of salaries and free time .The company concentrates entropy, and
this allows it to achieve greater success than a single individual can achieve,
or other organizations with lower entropy.
Thus, in
many respects, the success of the company, and the level of its entropy depends on how much entropy will
be given by each employee .If an employee performs his work not well: not
accurately and not according to instructions
,not occupied, always thinking about things not related to work, he will give a small amount of entropy. If he follows the
instructions exactly, and all his thoughts and efforts are directed to perform
his tasks, he is investing the company the maximum amount of freedom and his entropy.
If all employees do the same, the company receives the maximum amount of
entropy, which increases its capabilities .As a result, employees also receive
a large volume of entropy.
A modern man invests his freedom not only into
the company, in which he works, but also
into the state, and other structures, formal and informal, that we call
institutions, and as a result to get a greater
freedom.
Let's go
back to the delusion that the savage had more freedom than modern humans, who
are tied by numerous rules, regulations and laws. This is not the case. A savage
was constantly forced to deal only with the search of food, and any experiments
could result in the death of him or his family, so he had much less freedom and
fewer possibilities, compared to a modern man who invests his freedom into a
number of institutions, that enables him to obtain very large dividends in the
form of additional possibilities.
Institute -
a subsystem imposing certain restrictions on the actions of a person or an organization,
but allows them to receive larger entropy
in comparison with the lost one.
It should
also be added that the lack of concentration of capital often leads to higher
unemployment. Companies are closed if they cannot reach a competitive level of
entropy and the unemployment rate is increasing .A well-developed banking
system is one of the main ways of concentrating entropy, and thus stimulating the
activities of banks is an effective way of dealing with unemployment.
For the same
reason, in the fight against unemployment, it is advisable not to spray
investment for a variety of businesses, and concentrate funding for one,
achieving the entropy due to the concentration of its competitiveness .In the
future, competitive company will be able to develop independently and
independently attract investment.
Sequential
concentration of entropy in various companies, will eventually lead many of
them to a competitive level. But if you spray the investment, each of these
businesses will receive insufficient funding to be competitive, and these funds
will simply be "eaten away".
Chapter 8.
Entropy traps
So, to
increase the entropy, it must first be reduced .However, if the level of
entropy is minimal, then this is not possible. This condition will be called
entropy trap. Its peculiarity is that to get out of it is impossible, relying
on the natural course of events .Investors are looking for objects to invest which will generate entropy, and
thus they do not invest those who have
fallen in the trap and have extremely low freedom and almost no options. This
is where a state is needed .It can be
said that overcoming such traps at different levels – is one of the main objectives of the government. But
it does not mean to help financially those who are in an entropy trap, people
and businesses.
Several
factors can facilitate the way out of such traps. The first - to lower the
threshold of investment. The higher the subjective idea of the acceptability of
the standard of life is, the higher the threshold at which people can invest is.
In contrast, the more modest consumer appetite is, the less money is spent, the
lower the threshold at which to start investing is. The volume of investment is
increasing and the economy is growing.
Now
stimulation of demand is considered to be the main task of the state in the way out from the crisis. One more
bought sausage, umbrella, hat ....All money should be included in the consumer
turnover .As a result, the economy has not a single chance to break out this
vicious circle, like a squirrel in a wheel. It is necessary to break this
cycle, to pull out part of the entropy, some of the money from this turnover,
which is predetermined, and in which there is some uncertainty. And you have to
take a chance ... investment - always a risk, but without it there is no
uncertainty, no uncertainty- no entropy, no freedom and no development. Money torn
from the consumer race is free money.
But with the
deterioration of the economic situation, the threshold for investment decreases
more slowly than the standard of living. And the investment is reduced with
even greater speed because trying to
preserve the familiar comfort, people spend more on consumption than on
investment .It takes time to decline investment,
with the lowering of requirements for the level of comfort.
For going
out of entropy traps the government should not only form a plan of "belt-tightening". Citizens need
to see clearly that these measures lead to an increase in the free entropy. For
ultimate transparency of this process, as a variant, the forced expulsion of income into
a special fund for the development may be proposed.
Usually,
during the crisis, citizens interfere in governments process of the distribution
of the budget correctly- to invest in
the most profitable enterprises. People insist on taking the money from the
rich and give to those who need. But not in the case when they will be promised not only to refund
the money deducted to a development fund, but also to return with dividends
that the fund will earn .In this case, people will not even mind if this fund
finances only the most profitable projects.
The second
factor that helps to get out of the trap of entropy - the deficit. If, say, the
amount of some product is very small, the desire to get it increases. The
greater the desire is, the greater the entropy returns to man, together with
this product. A state or companies can attract the entropy of workers with very
low cost for themselves.
Although the general rule of exchange will be conserved .The employee can actually consider very profitable to work at full capacity all day for a bowl of rice, if the food deficit is so great .Similarly, a native may accept as a fair bargain selling of a not very necessary island for him for the desired glass beads.
Although the general rule of exchange will be conserved .The employee can actually consider very profitable to work at full capacity all day for a bowl of rice, if the food deficit is so great .Similarly, a native may accept as a fair bargain selling of a not very necessary island for him for the desired glass beads.
Using cheap work
industry can overcome the entropy trap. But such a situation is difficult to
create on purpose, and it can not last
for a long time .Rather, it is a natural "anti-crisis protection",
which is activated if the difference in the level of development of neighboring
communities is becoming so great that allows "outsiders" to have a
head start.
The third
fact, helping to break out of the trap is to optimize the distribution of the
released entropy. A maximum output would be in the case if the investment falls
into the hands of those who can handle it well. The simplest matter is to invest in the most successful businesses, in
the most promising professionals, and private investors behave in such a way. But
this is impossible in the case of the entropy trap, because private investors
are reluctant to play the role of rescuers.
How can we
distinguish those who will be able to dispose investments in the most effective
way in the mass of people and organizations who have fallen into the trap of entropy?
At the enterprise level, the state should not allow funding the whole enterprise
but a particular project. It is important to legally forbid the use of money
received to fund a project for saving unprofitable projects of the same
company. And the control of this agreement should be strict. And then,
investors will not be afraid to invest in small but successful projects, not
fearing that these funds will provide the work of an entire enterprise.
At the level
of individuals caught in the trap of entropy, the government should create an
environment in which everyone can express themselves, even at the minimal
opportunities. It may be some tests, tasks, cases, which are proposed to be solved by those who wish, as well as small volunteer
projects in which the quality of the examined are studied. The developed infrastructure,
subordinate to this goal will help companies and educational institutions to
find the most promising employees and students.
If we are
talking about the whole country which has fallen into the trap of entropy, the
government among other things should create favorable conditions for attraction
of entropy in the form of foreign investment, and to prevent the outflow of
capital of its citizens and organizations abroad.
Chapter 9.
Inequality
Imagine a
society in which one citizen is very well off, and the remaining 10,000 are
poor. Suppose that a wealthy man getting 2 million per year and 1,000 dollars.,
spends 1 million and 1 thousand and invests 1 million. At the same time each of
the poorer compatriots spends just
one thousand year. We can say that the part of the entropy that society is
willing to invest – corresponds to $1million.
Now suppose that a rich man, imbued with socialist ideas leaves a thousand for
himself, distributes two million and moves to the village. Now, each of the
10,000 citizens additionally receives $ 200 per year. If every one of them
could invest $ 100 of this additional money, the big difference for economic
development would not be. But in reality this does not happen. These extra $
200 will be just spent. Because the sum of 1,200 dollars is still below the
threshold of investing.
At the time
of distribution of money, the total entropy of the society does not change, it
will be just its redistribution. But for the growth of entropy it is necessary to
invest it, but nobody will invest it. The development will stop, and if other
countries continue to increase their entropy, then this " society of
equality" will not be able to compete with them for resources and will
begin to decline.
Again we
face the dilemma: to spend or to collect for investment? It may seem a good
argument that if everyone invests and buys almost nothing, then there will be
nothing to invest in- the industry will stop. But in reality, the industries will
have to develop better products, difficult to resist not to buy, and due to
large investment, industries will have opportunities for such costly
developments.
However, it
is possible to assume that due to large investments there will be created such products
that people can not but buy them. A consumption boom will start, it will reduce
the comparative levels of investment and will slow down the development of new products
, the consumer demand will be smaller,
investment will increase, there will be new developments and new boom of
consumerism. Perhaps this iterative process is the cause of Kondratieff long
waves. But it is unlikely.
In general,
it can be argued that income inequality promotes economic development. Of
course, the wealthy can spend all the money, with no uncertainty, and without
investing anything. Therefore, we formulate the following rule: the smaller the
difference in the level of consumption is, and the greater difference in income
between citizens of the same country is, the more the development of the
economy is stimulated.
Chapter 10. Monetary
measures
What happens
to the economy when the government is taking some monetary measures? These
measures either lead to redistribution of entropy, or to inadequate assessment
of the available entropy. But more often, to both. Suppose that the government
has resorted to printing money. Most often this is done in order to overcome
any crisis. First, as a rule the most money is received by structures which
need it most of all. That is, the structures that either do not add entropy, or
do it in a minimal volume. Taking into account the subsequent inflation, it is
hidden redistribution of entropy from those who know how to receive it, to
those who can not.
But if you
need to get out from under the collapse, who do you trust your pick and other tools? Those who know how
to use them and walk quite well, or those who have never used them and could
barely walk? Of course, the money issue should be directed to the most
successful projects and companies. No matter how paradoxical it may sound: to help
the most successful has proved that they can multiply the investment. But in
fact the opposite is reality- the state takes away the tools of those who would
use them efficiently and gives them to those who can not. Can you predict the effectiveness of such
emissions?
They often say about the impossibility of refusing to
help unprofitable businesses because of the danger of rising unemployment and
increasing social tensions. But then it is even more necessary to provide
financial support to profitable businesses so that they can expand and create new jobs.
We have
already mentioned inflation. The triumph of justice is due to it .Money is only
an objective measure of the available entropy .But immediately after the issue
of money, people who identify entropy with money will consider that they
possess twice the entropy, and will act accordingly. During the circulation of
money fraud will be seen and compliance
will turn to normal, but this return to
the real purchasing power of money can be very painful.
Once more
let us consider methods to stimulate the economy in terms of Keynesian economic
theory. It is believed that if, for
example, the government spends a lot of money on any order then it stimulates
the economy, because the money starts to run around in circles, repeatedly
stimulating economic processes. I've pointed out at the absurdity of such a
representation. What is really going on?
The same
transfer, the same transaction, may increase the entropy, and may reduce it. If
the state places a large order only on the basis of stimulating the economy, then
this order is unprofitable in itself. Thus the state itself reduces its
entropy. In this case, GDP may grow for a short period of time, but we already
know that this is not the evidence of
economic growth.
In economic
analysis, you have to turn from the
transactions to more general concepts and parameters characterizing the
development of an economic system, which is impossible without defining the
essence of value. When we agree with this, the analysis of the chain of
transactions is also not appropriate just as the thermodynamic analysis on the
basis of alignments of chain of collisions for each individual atom is not
appropriate.
The chain of
payments to each other may lead both to progress and regress, depending on the
overall processes of the increase of
entropy. Therefore it is more correct to analyze these generalized processes as they are determining, and the endless chains
of transactions only implement these processes.
Therefore,
we can not try to analyze the effects of, say, the issue of money on the
principle: Joe paid Tom, Tom paid Bill etc. It is enough to know that money
does not affect the actual amount of entropy .Therefore, if you create such an
illusion, it is not for a long time. After emission of money situation may develop
in two scenarios:
1) The
deceived society is in tranquility, but real entropy continues to fall. And
when the illusion dissipates, the company is surprised to find itself trapped
in entropy trap from which it is very difficult to get out by now.
2) The Government is investing "printed" money in the most profitable projects, and by the time the deception will have been revealed , the real entropy will increase. In fact, it would mean a redistribution of the entropy from the least efficient structures to more profitable. This movement contributes to the development of the economy, although it is extremely difficult to implement in practice.
2) The Government is investing "printed" money in the most profitable projects, and by the time the deception will have been revealed , the real entropy will increase. In fact, it would mean a redistribution of the entropy from the least efficient structures to more profitable. This movement contributes to the development of the economy, although it is extremely difficult to implement in practice.
Obviously I
think the second way to use money emission is more appropriate.
Chapter 11.
Economic crises
Now we can
approach to the classification of economic crises.
The monetary
crisis caused confusion of economic entities regarding their savings and income level. The cause
of these errors is usually some manipulation in the securities market and the
foreign exchange markets. Citizens and organizations believe that they have
much more entropy than in reality, but then the deception is revealed and it
turns out that the real level of entropy is much lower.
A system
crisis is linked to a state policy aimed at equal distribution of income, the
suppression of freedom and uncertainty in the markets. If before implementing
this policy entropy level was high, then it will remain so for a while, but the
economy will cease to develop further. Therefore, as the entropy of neighboring
states grows, the country will lose the fight for resources and will decline.
Shock crises
are caused by environmental conditions, such as competition from other entities
having a larger entropy, adverse changes in the environment or aggressive
actions of other countries or specific groups of individuals.
Chapter 12. Economic
ideology
The role of
public opinion in governing a state is increasing. But to use public opinion in
managing economic processes now, would be equal to economic suicide. This is
not surprising because all the media assess economic processes and actions of
politicians in terms of a uniform increase in GDP, and justice is assessed in
terms of equal distribution of income.
Then public
opinion affects the action of politicians, and in the end it leads to economic
crises. As methods of influence in the economy were not so sophisticated and
effective, misconceptions about the economic processes could not cause any
great harm, but now these erroneous views can be fatal. Therefore the economic
ideology is a very important activity of the state .The basis of this ideology
can be the following:
The uneven
distribution of income - the force pushing forward the whole of the society. People should love and appreciate their billionaires
who are deprived of a normal life for the sake of prosperity of the whole
society.
Promotion of
uniform economic growth should be prohibited, as extremist. False ideals of
this growth, are pushing the government on monetary measures that prevent the
normal development of the economy. And when the "monetary fog"
dissipates, the crowds are demanding the resignation of governments, because
they inspired with: the economic downturn is not natural, and there must be
guilty. And as it is known the guilty are
to be punished.
Everything develops
in cycles. Although, of course, the cycles may overlap .But the main idea of
growth and development – freedom and comfort
should be sacrificed first, so that to get it at a higher level, and
then ... again donate. The need to periodically sacrifice freedom and comfort, must be understood and accepted. Just as the
idea of uncertainty should be adopted. To move uniformly and predictably can
lead only to slaughter, whereas the free development involves trial and error,
ups and downs. Freedom is uncertainty in itself.
The desire
to change something in the life of every citizen, in the activities of each
organization should be cultivated.
There may
not be economic development without deficit and sense of dissatisfaction.
Society
should be able to continuously monitor key economic processes. Citizens should
be freely informed about change in the following parameters: the amount of
money supply, inflation, hidden inflation, the profitability of enterprises and
industries. And you should forget about the GDP.
And to sum
it up: you have to do away with the dominant consumer ideology of gradual and
smooth consumption of more and more products, without risk, uncertainty,
without ups and downs, without freedom.
Enclosure
The entropy
of the system and its components may vary. Thermodynamic entropy is a measure
of the freedom of the individual atoms. Atoms tend to greatest freedom and thus
their movements become less consistent and connected with each other.
Therefore, from the viewpoint of the whole system they move chaotic and quite
unpredictable. The atoms themselves are
at the same time happy, as they are free. However, the entropy of the whole
system decreases and becomes zero at the moment of "thermal death."
Entropy is
the measure of the development and the
condition of the development. Therefore,
if the entropy of an object is zero, then it can not grow if it does not get
the entropy from the outside. The object is in the entropy trap. Therefore, the
zero entropy of the system is called heat death.
However,
nature invented the way to transfer entropy from the micro level to the macro
level. The way to transfer entropy from individual atoms to the whole system is
called Life. So a small movement of the atom of the nervous system can alter
the movement and behavior of the mouse, for example.
But nature
did not stop at this. The development of human society and its many institutions
revealed that due to relations and restrictions imposed on the citizens
("atoms of society") it is also possible to increase the entropy of the citizens themselves.
The negative
attitude toward entropy as a measure of chaos, has been developed from the
observation of thermodynamic entropy, which describes the freedom of atoms in
inorganic nature. There, indeed, the freedom of the atoms leads to the heat
death of the system, and additional bonds decrease the entropy of atoms. But
perhaps there is some universal law, stating that the increase in entropy at
different levels is the main objective of
the development, which forced to
"invent" first Life, as a way to transfer entropy at the macro level,
and then the complex human society, in which new relationships and constraints
allow to increase entropy almost infinitely.
thanks ANDREY!
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